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The Consumer Credit Outlook In Uncertain Economic Times
Register

When:
March 13, 2003 at 2:30 Eastern Time
for about 1 hour

Speaker:

Mark Lauritano
Managing Director
Global Insights

Session Description:

Our presentation will draw upon ongoing research into current economic conditions and consumer credit behavior. The findings from this research provide key insights on the future performance of consumer lending products and personal bankruptcy filings under alternative economic assumptions.

Our research has resulted in a General Purpose Card Outlook that provides an overview of how our economic forecast will influence expected consumer credit behavior and general purpose card (GPC) volume. Credit card industry projections were developed using a proprietary econometric model that utilizes indicators published in Visa and MasterCard Quarterly Statistical Reports and other published sources.

The research relies on output from our US economic and GPC model, aggregating the best available data across all types of general purpose cards (Visa, MasterCard, American Express, Discover, and Diners Club). Each month we develop a five-year quarterly forecast for the following concepts: Total Cards, Total Accounts, Active Accounts, Total Volume, Purchase Volume, Purchase Volume Excluding Debit Cards, Cash Advances, Outstandings, Payments, Delinquencies, Net Charge-offs, and Personal Bankruptcy Filings.

Our indicators on funding costs along with the growth in cards, outstandings, and losses have resulted in a complete picture of the key determinants of revenue growth in the card industry.

An executive summary featuring bullet points highlighting our card industry outlook and the research results will be presented.

This program is appropriate for senior financial executives with responsibility for Consumer Banking Risk, Retail Marketing, Risk & Credit Operations, Card Products, Loss Mitigation, Market Research and Strategy Teams.

Attendance Fee:

$275 plus $50 per telephone line used

About Mark Lauritano

As Managing Director of the Financial Practice for Global Insight’s Advisory Services Group, Mark directs custom projects involving development of detailed information with which financial institutions can more effectively and efficiently allocate human capital resources to respond to dynamic market conditions.

The Financial Practice focuses on sizing the market for financial products and assessing their exposure to economic risks. Mark has directed several consulting projects in the area of credit risk, including a study of the factors driving personal bankruptcy rates, a metro area mortgage default model, an analysis of regional differences in credit use and delinquency behavior, and a strategic model for C&I loan portfolio diversification. Mark has also produced several market segmentation studies for the commercial card industry.

Prior to joining Global Insights, he spent five years with John Hancock's commercial real estate investment subsidiary as director of research. He also worked at DRI/McGraw-Hill as an economist and consultant for their regional economic forecasting group. Mark earned a BA in economics from Colby College and an MBA in finance from Boston University.

About Global Insights (formerly DRI-WEFA)

Global Insight was created to combine the two leading economic and financial forecasting companies in the world -- DRI (formerly Standard & Poors Data Resources) and WEFA (formerly Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates)

-- to form the world's preeminent business research company.

At Global Insight, our team of 400 economists and dedicated consulting professionals help you identify new growth opportunities while avoiding pitfalls and risks. We combine pure academic rigor with strategic business thinking to provide solutions that help you shape the future of your company. We provide both information and analytical tools needed to make smarter business decisions. And we do it in real time.

Global Insight’s analytic expertise, modeling infrastructure, and familiarity with consumer credit performance data give Risk Managers and Strategic Marketing Executives customized market outlooks, early risk warnings, and quality portfolio loss forecasting systems. We apply the insight and expertise of our forecasting and analytical services to advise you re specific factors that affect your competitive position, investment strategy, and policy decisions.